1. Ukraine / Eastern Europe
Driver: Prolonged War, NATO–Russia tension
- Business Exposure:
- Energy & logistics volatility
- Defense-driven budget reallocations
- Life Exposure:
- Regional security concerns
- Migration pressure
- Eisenhower: High Importance / High Urgency → ACT NOW
2. Middle East (Israel–Gaza–Iran Axis)
Driver: Escalation risk, proxy conflicts
- Business Exposure:
- Oil & gas price spikes
- Shipping insurance & Red Sea disruption
- Life Exposure:
- Travel safety
- Inflation via energy prices
- Eisenhower: High / High → ACT NOW
3. Red Sea & Suez Corridor
Driver: Armed disruptions, trade weaponization
- Business Exposure:
- Supply chain delays
- Freight cost inflation
- Life Exposure:
- Consumer price pressure
- Eisenhower: High / High → ACT NOW
4. US–China Tech & Trade Decoupling
Driver: Semiconductors, AI, sanctions
- Business Exposure:
- Market fragmentation
- Forced dual supply chains
- Life Exposure:
- Digital services & information access
- Eisenhower: High Importance / Medium Urgency → PREPARE
5. EU Regulatory Acceleration (Energy, AI, Mobility)
Driver: Green Deal, AI Act, fiscal pressure
- Business Exposure:
- Compliance costs
- Investment delays
- Life Exposure:
- Mobility restrictions
- Data & speech constraints
- Eisenhower: High / Medium → PREPARE
6. Taiwan Strait
Driver: Military signaling, election aftermath
- Business Exposure:
- Semiconductor supply risk
- Market shock potential
- Life Exposure:
- Global economic confidence
- Eisenhower: High Importance / Low Urgency → PREPARE
7. Africa & Sahel Instability
Driver: Coups, resource conflicts
- Business Exposure:
- Raw material access
- Life Exposure:
- Migration pressure into EU
- Eisenhower: Medium / Medium → BUFFER
8. Domestic Social Tension (EU & US)
Driver: Inflation fatigue, polarization
- Business Exposure:
- Labor disruptions
- Political volatility
- Life Exposure:
- Safety, freedom, trust erosion
- Eisenhower: High / Medium → PREPARE
Executive GeoMove Takeaway
Q1/Q2 2026 is defined by overlapping conflict, trade weaponization, and regulatory acceleration.
Cash-flow resilience, supply optionality, and mobility freedom become strategic assets.
GeoMove — Executive Geopolitical Foresight
GeoMove provides a rolling quarterly, forward-looking forecast of where critical geopolitical flashpoints are forming and how they are likely to evolve — enabling business leaders to adjust strategy, exposure, and resilience before impact.
What GeoMove Is
GeoMove tracks directional pressure, not headlines.
It focuses on structural shifts, not events.
It signals lock-in and irreversibility, not volatility.
GeoMove does not predict events.
It anticipates where pressure is moving next.
How to Read a GeoMove
- Headline → Direction (what is forming)
- Panels → Mechanics (how pressure moves)
- Rationale → Causality (why this direction holds)
Each GeoMove is designed to be read in seconds, remembered for weeks, and used in decisions.
Time Horizon
Rolling Quarterly
GeoMove is updated as pressures stabilize, shift, or lock in. Past GeoMoves are never edited.
Who GeoMove Is For
- CEOs and Boards
- Strategy & Risk Committees
- Supply Chain, Energy, and Investment Leaders
Latest GeoMove
GeoMove anticipates where pressure is moving — so business can adapt before impact.
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