Region: High North & Arctic RimScope: US – Russia – China – Nordics – Canada
What Is Happening
The Arctic is shifting from a low-competition scientific zone into a contested arena for energy extraction, critical minerals, maritime logistics, and defense posturing. Russia is strengthening control over the Northern Sea Route (NSR), China pursues a “Polar Silk Road” strategy, and US-Canada-Nordics integrate Arctic posture into NATO and NORAD frameworks.
Key Drivers
- Energy: LNG, oil, rare minerals (Ni, Co, REE)
- Logistics: NSR seasonal shipping corridor
- Security: Arctic militarization & ISR coverage
Stakeholders
- Russia — NSR control via Northern Fleet
- United States/Canada — NORAD homeland defense + LNG
- China — “Polar Silk Road” logistics & resource access
- Nordics — Ports, surveillance & NATO integration
- Indigenous Groups — Environmental & resource governance
Strategic Impacts
Business: LNG CapEx ↑ · Minerals race ↑ · Insurance premiums ↑
Policy: NATO Arctic posture · Sanctions on LNG · UNCLOS claims ↑
Citizen: Indigenous rights · Climate risk · Energy price volatility
Board-Level Strategic Signal
“The Arctic is moving from exploration → contested energy & logistics corridor.”
