GeoPolitics – Europe & DACH (Week of 12–18 January 2026)
This is a weekly snapshot of the key geopolitical developments affecting Europe and the DACH region, plus short-term and medium-term outlooks with practical implications.
Top 4 Developments
1. Germany pushes for “European Patriotism” in economic policy
Germany’s finance minister has called for a stronger European approach to economic resilience. The idea is that state aid and public procurement should favour European jobs, production, and strategic autonomy.
Why it matters: This signals a shift toward European industrial policy, economic sovereignty, and reduced dependency on China and the U.S. for critical supply chains.
2. Berlin power outage exposes infrastructure vulnerabilities
A major power outage in Berlin, treated as intentional sabotage, exposed weaknesses in critical infrastructure (energy grids, cyber systems, emergency response).
Why it matters: Infrastructure security becomes a priority issue in Germany and the DACH region. Expect increased budgets and policy pressure for resilience, redundancy, and hybrid-threat protection.
3. Europe presses the U.S. on Ukraine security guarantees at Davos
European leaders are coordinating before Davos to push for long-term security guarantees and reconstruction funding for Ukraine.
Why it matters: Europe is shaping the emerging post-war security architecture. Reconstruction and security policies could unlock large investment flows in energy, infrastructure, and digital sectors.
4. Debate over the future of the European project
Germany and other European states are experiencing growing public debate about the EU’s direction, especially around defence, sovereignty, migration, and competitiveness.
Why it matters: EU unity is critical for dealing with Russia, China, and U.S. power shifts. Political fragmentation could weaken Europe’s negotiating position globally.
Supplementary Trends
Supply chain instability:
European companies are treating geopolitical instability as permanent rather than temporary. This drives diversification of suppliers, regional “friend-shoring”, and new continuity planning.
Digital & economic security:
The EU is expanding digital sovereignty measures in AI, data, and critical technologies. Technology policy is becoming a geopolitical tool, aligning with economic and industrial strategy.
Forecast for Europe & DACH (Next 7–30 Days)
Economic sovereignty push (DACH/EU)
- Next 7 days: Political debate spreads across EU capitals.
- Next 30 days: Early policy proposals may emerge linking subsidies and state aid to domestic EU production and jobs.
Critical infrastructure security
- Next 7 days: Emergency reviews and investigations into infrastructure resilience.
- Next 30 days: EU-level coordination likely on infrastructure defence, resilience financing, and hybrid-threat response.
Ukraine security guarantees
- Next 7 days: Davos discussions will define transatlantic positioning on security and reconstruction for Ukraine.
- Next 30 days: Negotiations may begin on long-term guarantees, funding, and reconstruction frameworks.
EU unity and strategic vision
- Next 7 days: Media and political debate intensifies in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.
- Next 30 days: A “core group” of EU states could push forward defence and strategic autonomy initiatives.
Key Indicators to Watch Next Week
Political/Security
- Statements or proposals on European industrial sovereignty and “economic patriotism”
- Davos outcomes on Ukraine security and reconstruction
Economic/Trade
- EU digital and trade security announcements
- Corporate risk reports and supply chain guidance
Public Sentiment/Politics
- Polling shifts in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland
- Media debate on the EU’s strategic purpose and cohesion
Strategic Implications
For governments and policy planners:
- Strengthen infrastructure protection (physical + cyber + hybrid threats)
- Align national measures with EU-level resilience mechanisms
- Balance economic sovereignty with EU internal cohesion
For companies and investors:
- Integrate geopolitical and infrastructure risk into strategy and capital allocation
- Stress-test supply chains and grid dependencies
- Monitor EU policy shifts in industrial, digital, and defence domains
For civil society, think tanks, and analysts:
- Track narratives around sovereignty, autonomy, and EU integration
- Analyse hybrid threat vectors affecting domestic and external security
- Inform public debate with data-driven assessments
