RapidKnowHow: GEOPOLITICS Leadership Delivered

RapidKnowHow: GEOPOLITICS Leadership Delivered
A neutral, compliance-first Power Guide to navigate shocks and uncertainty. Tools for Country Risk, Exposure, Sanctions Readiness, Early Warning, Scenario Planning, Commodity Pass-Through, and Crisis Protocols.
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1) Model & Principles

Geopolitics Leadership = Intelligence × Compliance × (Resilience + Optionality)

  • Intelligence — structured signals → scenarios → decisions
  • Compliance — sanctions/export controls/beneficial ownership (no evasion)
  • Resilience — diversified revenue & supply; buffers; crisis playbooks
  • Optionality — alt suppliers, routings, payment rails, legal entities
Note: Informational only. Seek qualified legal counsel for sanctions/export control decisions.

2) Diagnostic Rubric (score 0–10)

Governance & Compliance

  • 0–2: Ad-hoc checks; no list sync
  • 3–4: Basic OFAC/EU screening, manual
  • 5–6: Automated screening; BO look-through
  • 7–8: Export control classification; holds workflow; audits
  • 9–10: Global lists, PEP/adverse media, training & SLAs

Exposure Concentration

  • 0–2: 1–2 countries = >70% revenue/supply
  • 3–4: HHI > 2500 (high concentration)
  • 5–6: HHI 1500–2500
  • 7–8: HHI < 1500; backup suppliers
  • 9–10: HHI < 1200; tested switch plans

Early Warning & Scenarios

  • 0–2: News-driven; no thresholds
  • 3–4: Manual tracking; no triggers
  • 5–6: Core signals; 3 scenarios w/ probabilities
  • 7–8: Thresholded alerts; playbooks
  • 9–10: Continuous sensing; monthly drills

Crisis Readiness

  • 0–2: No escalation matrix
  • 3–4: Roles defined; no drills
  • 5–6: Levels 1–5; comms templates
  • 7–8: Quarterly drills; vendor alignment
  • 9–10: Cross-border playbooks; 24/7 on-call

3) 12-Month Roadmap

Q1 — Baseline

  • Compliance reset (lists, BO, ECCN, holds)
  • Exposure map (revenue/supply by country; HHI)
  • Signals & thresholds; 3 scenarios

Q2 — Fortify

  • Alt suppliers/routes; payment rails options
  • Commodity pass-through clauses
  • Level 1–5 crisis matrix + drill

Q3 — Diversify

  • Reduce HHI below 1500
  • Run scenario war-game
  • Quarterly compliance audit

Q4 — Lead

  • Annual multi-crisis exercise
  • Board dashboard cadence
  • Optionality playbook refreshed

4) 90-Day Sprint

Days 1–30

  • Sync sanctions lists (US/EU/UK)
  • BO look-through ≥25% ownership
  • Build exposure table & HHI

Days 31–60

  • Set 5 core signals + thresholds
  • Draft 3 scenarios (+EV impact)
  • Insert pass-through clause templates

Days 61–90

  • Drill Level 3 crisis
  • Qualify 2 backup suppliers
  • Board review of dashboard

5) Operating System (weekly)

  • Mon: Signals review → any thresholds crossed?
  • Wed: Mitigation workstream update (supply, legal, finance)
  • Fri: Risk dashboard to execs + next steps
Escalate via matrix Levels 1–5. Document decisions & rationale.

6) Metrics That Matter

  • HHI (exposure concentration) — lower is better
  • Time-to-Decision (from signal to action)
  • Compliance coverage (% screened, BO resolved)
  • Scenario EV impact (€ / margin points)
  • Drill readiness (time, gaps resolved)

7) Scripts & Templates

Supplier diversification (email)

Subject: Qualification Request — Secondary Supply for {{SKU}} Hi {{Name}}, as part of our resilience program we’re qualifying secondary sources for {{SKU}}. Could we review specs, lead times, Incoterms, and compliance (sanctions/export controls) this week? — {{Signature}}

Board update (one-pager)

Signals: {{…}} | Thresholds crossed: {{…}} | Scenario EV: {{…}} | HHI: {{…}} Actions: {{…}} | Decisions needed: {{…}} | Next 7 days: {{…}}

8) Interactive Tools

Interpretation: HHI <1500 low, 1500–2500 moderate, >2500 high concentration.
Aim for ≥6/8 before operating in higher-risk markets.

9) Risks & Anti-Patterns

  • Sanctions/controls evasion (illegal) — never do this
  • No BO look-through — hidden exposure
  • High HHI — revenue/supply concentration
  • No pass-through clauses — margin erosion
  • Decision lag — signals without thresholds

10) Next Steps & CTA

Now: Run the tools above (risk, HHI, sanctions, early-warning, scenarios, pass-through, crisis).

Then: Pick one 30-day booster and set the weekly cadence.

Privacy: This demo runs locally in your browser. Not legal advice.
RapidKnowHow + ChatGPT | GEOPOLITICS Leadership Delivered
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Strategy & Positioning

  • ICP — Ideal Customer Profile: the type of company or buyer you serve best (e.g., “mid-market industrials in EU”).
  • GTM — Go-to-Market: how you win customers (channels, funnel, coverage).
  • CTA — Call to Action: the concrete next step you ask for (e.g., “Book a 30-min fit call”).
  • NPS — Net Promoter Score: loyalty metric from −100 to +100 based on “recommend?” survey.

Problem-Solving & Prioritization

  • MECE — Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive: structure issues so items don’t overlap and cover the whole problem.
  • ICE — Impact × Confidence ÷ Effort: quick way to rank initiatives by payoff versus difficulty.
  • RICE — Reach × Impact × Confidence ÷ Effort: prioritization adding “how many affected” (Reach).
  • H1 / H2 / H3 — Hypotheses 1/2/3: statements you test to explain the outcome gap.
  • A/B — A/B Test: run version A vs B to see which performs better, statistically.

Finance & Economics

  • ROI — Return on Investment: (benefit − cost) ÷ cost; we also use “12-month ROI”.
  • EV — Expected Value: price or fee × win probability (used in proposal economics).
  • EBIT — Earnings Before Interest & Taxes: operating profit measure; often a target KPI.
  • TCO — Total Cost of Ownership: full cost to build or buy (setup + run + maintenance).
  • KPI — Key Performance Indicator: the success metric you’re aiming to move (e.g., “gross margin +3 pts”).

AI, Data & Platforms

  • MLOps — Machine-Learning Operations: deploy, monitor, retrain and govern models safely.
  • CI/CD — Continuous Integration / Continuous Delivery: automated build, test and deploy pipeline.
  • PII — Personally Identifiable Information: data that can identify a person; needs special handling.
  • RBAC — Role-Based Access Control: users only see data and tools allowed by their role.
  • Model Registry — System of record for model versions and approvals.
  • Drift — Model/data performance shift over time; requires monitoring and retraining.
  • GenAI — Generative AI: systems that create text, images, code, etc., from prompts.

Sales, Pipeline & Delivery

  • CRM — Customer Relationship Management: system to track contacts, deals and activities.
  • Win Rate — % of qualified opportunities you close (not an acronym, but core metric).
  • PMO — Project Management Office: function that governs large projects and portfolios.

Planning & Cadence

  • Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 — Calendar or fiscal quarters (3-month blocks).
  • FY — Fiscal Year: your accounting year (e.g., FY2026).
  • v1 — Version 1: first working release you ship to users (“prove value fast”).
  • Sprint — Fixed timebox (often 1–2 weeks) to build and ship increments.

Commercial Packaging & Offers

  • Pilot — Small, time-boxed engagement to prove value and de-risk a larger rollout.
  • Tiered Offer — Three options (e.g., Pilot / Core / Flagship) to match scope and price to value.
  • Risk Reversal — Mechanism that reduces buyer risk (e.g., milestone-based fees or opt-out gates).

Governance & Compliance

  • SLA — Service-Level Agreement: commitments on availability, quality or timeliness.
  • Audit Trail — Record of who changed what and when (models, data, access).
  • Guardrails — Technical and policy limits that keep AI use safe and compliant.

Geopolitics — Short-Forms Glossary

Core ideas

  • IR — International Relations: how states and actors interact.
  • Great-Power Competition (GPC) — Rivalry among top states for influence.
  • Realpolitik — Power-first, pragmatic statecraft over ideals.
  • Balance of Power (BoP) — States align to prevent any one from dominating.
  • Multipolarity — Several major powers (vs. uni- or bi-polar orders).
  • Rules-Based Order (RBO) — Norms/institutions guiding state behavior.
  • Spheres of Influence — Regions where a power seeks primacy.

Power & influence

  • Hard Power — Military/economic coercion.
  • Soft Power — Attractiveness of culture, values, policy.
  • Sharp Power — Manipulative influence (disinfo, interference).
  • Smart Power — Blending hard and soft tools.
  • Statecraft — Full toolkit of national power (DIME: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic).

Alignment & strategy

  • Alliance — Formal defense pact (e.g., NATO).
  • Coalition — Ad-hoc group for an issue/operation.
  • Bandwagoning — Aligning with the strong to gain favor.
  • Balancing — Aligning against a stronger rival.
  • Hedging — Keeping ties with competing blocs to reduce risk.
  • Non-Alignment — Avoiding formal blocs; strategic autonomy.
  • Thucydides Trap — Rising vs ruling power conflict risk.

Economic statecraft

  • Sanctions — Restrictions to coerce (trade, finance, travel).
  • Secondary Sanctions — Penalties on third parties dealing with a target.
  • Export Controls — Limits on tech/goods transfers.
  • Embargo — Broad trade ban with a country.
  • SWIFT Cut-off — Removing banks from global messaging rails.
  • Capital Controls — Limits on money flows across borders.
  • Sovereign Debt Restructuring — Renegotiating a state’s debt burden.
  • De-risking / Decoupling — Reducing exposure to a rival’s economy.
  • Friend-shoring / Near-shoring — Moving supply chains to allies/nearby.

Trade & institutions

  • WTO — World Trade Organization (rules, dispute settlement).
  • MFN — Most-Favored-Nation tariff status.
  • FTA — Free Trade Agreement (bilateral or regional).
  • Anti-Dumping — Duties against below-cost imports.
  • ITAR/EAR — US export control regimes for arms/dual-use tech.
  • Extraterritoriality — Laws applied beyond national borders.

Energy & resources

  • OPEC+ — Oil producers’ coordination group.
  • Petrodollars — Oil trade revenues held in USD assets.
  • Energy Security — Reliable, affordable, sustainable supply.
  • Critical Minerals — Lithium, cobalt, REEs, etc., vital for tech/energy.
  • Strategic Reserves — Stockpiles (oil, gas, grains, minerals).
  • Pipeline Politics — Influence via cross-border energy routes.

Maritime & territory

  • UNCLOS — UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
  • EEZ — Exclusive Economic Zone (200 nm resource rights).
  • FONOPs — Freedom of Navigation Operations.
  • A2/AD — Anti-Access/Area-Denial (keep adversaries at bay).
  • Chokepoint — Narrow route critical to trade (e.g., Hormuz, Malacca).
  • Lawfare — Using legal claims/processes as a strategic tool.

Security & conflict

  • Deterrence — Preventing action by threat of costs.
  • Escalation Ladder — Steps from diplomacy to full conflict.
  • Hybrid Warfare — Mix of military, cyber, economic, info tools.
  • Gray-Zone — Coercion below conventional war thresholds.
  • Article 5 (NATO) — Collective defense clause.
  • R2P — Responsibility to Protect (mass-atrocity norm).
  • Counter-insurgency (COIN) — Defeating armed non-state actors.

Nuclear basics

  • MAD — Mutually Assured Destruction (nuclear stalemate).
  • First-Strike / Second-Strike — Initial nuclear attack vs. assured retaliation.
  • Nuclear Triad — Land-based missiles, submarines, bombers.
  • Non-Proliferation (NPT) — Treaty to prevent nuclear spread.

Diplomacy & mediation

  • Track I / Track II — Official vs. unofficial diplomacy.
  • Backchannel — Discreet negotiation route.
  • Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) — Steps that reduce miscalculation.
  • Demarche — Formal diplomatic protest or request.
  • Summitry — Leader-level meetings to break deadlocks.

Information & cyber

  • OSINT — Open-Source Intelligence.
  • HUMINT/SIGINT/GEOINT — Human/Signals/Geospatial intel.
  • IO / PsyOps — Information operations / psychological ops.
  • Misinformation/Disinformation/Malinformation — False/intentional/true-but-weaponized info.
  • Cyber Deterrence — Preventing attacks via punishment/denial signals.

Law & global bodies

  • UNSC / UNGA — UN Security Council / General Assembly.
  • P5 — UNSC permanent five with veto.
  • ICJ / ICC — UN court for state disputes / criminal court for individuals.
  • IHL — International Humanitarian Law (law of armed conflict).
  • Sanctions Committee — UNSC panel monitoring compliance.

Regions & groupings (selected)

  • NATO — North Atlantic Treaty Organization (defense alliance).
  • EU (CFSP/CSDP) — EU foreign/security policy & defense missions.
  • BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (expanded in 2020s).
  • SCO — Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (Eurasian forum).
  • QUAD — Australia, India, Japan, US (Indo-Pacific dialogue).
  • AUKUS — Australia-UK-US security/tech pact.
  • ASEAN — Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
  • AU — African Union; continental governance.

Migration & society

  • Push/Pull Factors — Drivers that force/attract migration.
  • Refugee vs. IDP — Cross-border vs. internally displaced persons.
  • Diaspora Politics — Home-country influence via communities abroad.
  • Demographic Dividend — Growth boost from a young workforce.

Finance & currency

  • Reserve Currency — Widely held currency for trade/savings.
  • Swap Line — Central-bank liquidity backstop.
  • SDRs — IMF Special Drawing Rights (reserve asset).
  • De-dollarization — Reducing reliance on USD in trade/finance.

Risk & compliance

  • Country Risk — Combined political, economic, security risk.
  • Expropriation — State seizure of private assets.
  • Force Majeure — Uncontrollable event clause in contracts.
  • Political Risk Insurance (PRI) — Coverage for sovereign/instability risks.
  • Sanctions Screening — Checking entities against restricted lists.
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