The Health of Geopolitics – RapidKnowHow Create a specific Formula for the Global Geopolitical Landscape consisting of shifting power patterns, political tensions, senctions dynamics AND an Assessment Model showing at glance whether the Global Geopolitics is in Best / Medium /Worst Shape
Formula for the Global Geopolitical Landscape
To systematically evaluate the state of global geopolitics, we define the Geopolitical Stability Index (GSI) as a function of key power dynamics, tensions, and economic sanctions.
Formula:
GSI=(P−T−S+E+M)/NGSI = \left( P – T – S + E + M \right) / NGSI=(P−T−S+E+M)/N
Where:
- P (Power Balance Score) → Measures stability in global power structures (e.g., U.S.-China-EU-Russia-India dynamics).
- T (Political Tensions Score) → Assesses international conflicts, military confrontations, and diplomatic strains.
- S (Sanctions Impact Score) → Evaluates the severity and effectiveness of economic sanctions (negative impact).
- E (Economic Stability Score) → Reflects global economic growth, trade flow stability, and energy security.
- M (Multilateral Cooperation Score) → Captures the effectiveness of global governance bodies (UN, G20, BRICS, etc.).
- N (Normalization Factor) → Ensures the index stays within a fixed range (e.g., 100 for standardization).
Assessment Model: Global Geopolitical Health Indicator
| GSI Score | Geopolitical Health | Description |
| 70 – 100 | Best Shape | Stable global power dynamics, low tensions, minimal sanctions, strong economic cooperation. |
| 40 – 69 | Medium Shape | Moderate tensions, regional conflicts, economic fragmentation, partial cooperation. |
| 0 – 39 | Worst Shape | High geopolitical instability, economic decoupling, major conflicts, severe sanctions impact. |
This model provides a quantifiable way to assess geopolitical health at a glance, integrating key global trends into a single index. Would you like a real-time example using current data?
Calculate the 2023,202, Forecast 2025 using the model:
To assess the Global Geopolitical Landscape for the years 2023, 2024, and forecast for 2025 using the Geopolitical Stability Index (GSI), we analyze the following components:
- Power Balance Score (P): Evaluates the stability among major global powers.
- Political Tensions Score (T): Assesses the intensity of international conflicts and diplomatic strains.
- Sanctions Impact Score (S): Measures the severity and effectiveness of economic sanctions.
- Economic Stability Score (E): Reflects global economic growth and trade stability.
- Multilateral Cooperation Score (M): Captures the effectiveness of global governance bodies.
- Normalization Factor (N): Standardizes the index, set at 100.
Calculation:
GSI=(P−T−S+E+M)/NGSI = \left( P – T – S + E + M \right) / NGSI=(P−T−S+E+M)/N
Assessment Model:
- 70 – 100: Best Shape reuters.com+7en.wikipedia.org+7en.wikipedia.org+7
- 40 – 69: Medium Shape en.wikipedia.org+4en.wikipedia.org+4en.wikipedia.org+4
- 0 – 39: Worst Shape
Year 2023:
- Power Balance (P): The emergence of the “Axis of Upheaval,” comprising Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, challenged Western influence, indicating a shift in power dynamics. en.wikipedia.org
- Political Tensions (T): High tensions due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased military collaborations among the “Axis of Upheaval” members.
- Sanctions Impact (S): Severe sanctions imposed on Russia affected global markets and trade relations. en.wikipedia.org
- Economic Stability (E): Global economy faced sluggish growth, with the IMF warning of potential downturns. lemonde.fr
- Multilateral Cooperation (M): Strained, as geopolitical rifts hindered effective collaboration in international forums.
Estimated GSI for 2023: Low to Medium Shape.
Year 2024:
- Power Balance (P): Further consolidation of the “Axis of Upheaval,” challenging existing global power structures.en.wikipedia.org+1theguardian.com+1
- Political Tensions (T): Escalation in conflicts, including heightened tensions in the Middle East and East Asia.
- Sanctions Impact (S): Continued sanctions on Russia and new sanctions on other nations exacerbated economic divides.
- Economic Stability (E): Global growth remained sluggish, with protectionist policies affecting trade.lemonde.fr
- Multilateral Cooperation (M): Fragmentation within organizations like the UN and WTO reduced effective global governance.
Estimated GSI for 2024: Medium to Worst Shape.
Forecast for 2025:
- Power Balance (P): Potential shifts with the re-election of President Trump, influencing U.S. foreign policy and alliances. theguardian.com
- Political Tensions (T): Uncertainty in U.S.-China relations and ongoing conflicts may heighten global tensions.
- Sanctions Impact (S): Possibility of new sanctions regimes affecting major economies.
- Economic Stability (E): Predicted modest growth, contingent on geopolitical developments.
- Multilateral Cooperation (M): Efforts to rebuild trust and cooperation at forums like the World Economic Forum may improve collaboration. time.com
Forecasted GSI for 2025: Medium Shape, with potential for improvement if cooperative efforts succeed.
Note: These assessments are based on current trends and available data. Actual geopolitical conditions may vary due to unforeseen events and policy changes.
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