Issue #1 | February 2026
IGAS AI-Orchestrator™ by RapidKnowHow
Independent Board Intelligence Layer
Sharp.
Neutral.
Signal-dense.
No marketing tone.
Executive Signal Summary
⚠️ Current Volatility Posture
Energy markets in Europe remain structurally unstable.
Merchant exposure across mid-tier operators remains underpriced.
Portfolio-weighted PTE (pass-through-economics) appears below resilience threshold in several regional players.
Board-Level Trigger:
If portfolio PTE < 0.78 and merchant share > 25%,
next +15% energy shock reduces ROCE below 16% within two quarters.
Energy & CO₂ Shock Monitor
February 2026 Snapshot
- Electricity volatility elevated
- CO₂ pricing structurally embedded
- Freight insurance premiums remain elevated
Shock Simulation
Energy +15%
Logistics +10%
Cost shock impact for typical EU IGAS portfolio:
€90–120m annualized exposure per €4bn revenue base.
Recovery depends entirely on PTE discipline.
Portfolio PTE Risk Heatmap
Resilience Threshold: 0.78
| Supply Mode | Typical PTE | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| On-Site | 0.88–0.92 | Stable |
| Merchant | 0.65–0.75 | High |
| Packaged | 0.80–0.85 | Moderate |
| Healthcare | 0.75–0.82 | Moderate |
| Specialty | 0.90+ | Protective |
Board Observation:
Merchant volatility is primary structural ROCE destabilizer.
Merchant Volatility Indicator
Merchant risk escalates when:
- Utilization < 80%
- Energy repricing lag > 90 days
- Contract caps limit α < 0.7
- Inventory days > 55
If 2+ indicators triggered → Margin erosion underway.
Current regional player exposure suggests elevated risk across EU mid-tier operators.
ROCE Early Warning & Consolidation Radar
ROCE Sensitivity
Energy +15%, PTE 0.70 → ROCE compression 2–4pp.
Capital employed inflation compounds effect.
Consolidation Signal
Regional operators with:
- Merchant share > 30%
- PTE < 0.75
- Liquidity buffers < 6 months OPEX (operations expenses)
likely enter structural vulnerability window 2026–2027.
Strategic buyers positioned to widen gap.
Closing Note to Boards
Industrial Gas 2026 is not a volume stress cycle.
It is a capital discipline stress cycle.
Pass-through governance determines competitive positioning.
Boards should request:
- Portfolio-weighted PTE visibility
- Merchant exposure mapping
- ROCE stress simulation under +20% energy shock
- Capex re-evaluation under volatility regime
RapidKnowHow is: The independent intelligence layer that protects Industrial Gas margins and accelerates ROCE under volatility. Clear.Focused.Powerful.-Josef David
