🧨 Probability of Conflict Escalation – Ukraine Flashpoint Assessment
This geopolitical dashboard estimates escalation risk by analyzing weighted conflict factors and flagging critical risk signals with rationale.
| Escalation Factor | Weight (%) | Current Status (%) | Weighted Score | Flag | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO Military Build-up | 20% | 90% | 18.00% | ❌ | Deployment of long-range missiles and training activities near Russian border |
| Cross-Border Attacks (Drone/Artillery) | 25% | 80% | 20.00% | ❌ | Regular drone strikes deep into Russian territory signal direct confrontation |
| Diplomatic Breakdown | 20% | 60% | 12.00% | ⚠️ | G7 and BRICS blocs growing apart, talks stagnant |
| Internal Pressure (Political + Economic) | 15% | 70% | 10.50% | ⚠️ | War fatigue, budget strains, protests rising in EU/US/Russia |
| Energy/Nuclear Infrastructure Risk | 20% | 75% | 15.00% | ❌ | Attacks near Zaporizhzhia raise risk of uncontrollable escalation |
| TOTAL ESTIMATED ESCALATION RISK | 75.50% | ||||
Strategic Note: High escalation probability driven by aggressive action-reaction cycle and geopolitical polarization. Mitigation requires de-escalation dialogue and energy infrastructure security.
Assessing the Ukraine Conflict and providing a solution framework