📊 Probability of Business Success – AI vs Traditional Model
This calculator estimates your project’s success likelihood by assessing weighted criteria and highlighting red/green flags with rationale.
| Milestone | Weight (%) | Actual Progress (%) | Weighted Score | Flag | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Identifying Opportunities | 7% | 6% | 0.42% | ✅ | Well-scoped business domain identified |
| Identifying Needs | 20% | 15% | 3.00% | ❌ | Customer needs not fully validated |
| Building Buying Center Relationships | 25% | 20% | 5.00% | ⚠️ | Initial contact made, but not yet influence-building |
| Commitment from Buying Center | 40% | 32% | 12.80% | ✅ | Clear intent from internal champion |
| Contract & First Delivery Secured | 8% | 0% | 0.00% | ❌ | No signed commitment or order in place |
| TOTAL ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS | 21.22% | ||||
How to use: Reassess each stage, update progress, and validate commitment level weekly. Green = solid. Orange = uncertain. Red = must address.