ONE decision: Which entry strategy can generate sustainable free cash flow while limiting capital at risk?
| Simulator step | Application |
|---|---|
| DEFINE | Select ONE industrial cluster, customer segment and gas application. Establish demand, current supply problems and available capital. |
| SIMULATE | Compare cluster pilot, regional acquisition and greenfield entry over 3, 5 and 10 years. |
| DECIDE | Assess cumulative cash, funding required, payback and downside exposure alongside supply reliability. |
| APPLY | Secure ONE anchor customer, qualified supply partners and a paid 90-day pilot. |
| VERIFY | Compare actual demand, delivery cost, working capital and service performance against the model. |
Build the simulation from customer evidence.
| Required input | What to establish |
|---|---|
| Demand | Gas, purity, volume, variability and customer commitments |
| Revenue | Contract prices, rental and service income |
| Operating costs | Gas sourcing, energy, transport, people, maintenance and losses |
| Capital | Tanks, cylinders, vehicles, equipment and installation |
| Working capital | Inventory, customer payment periods and supplier terms |
| Downside | Slower customer uptake, lower volumes, higher costs and supply disruption |
Use the same scope and assumptions across strategies:
Project FCF = operating cash after tax − capital expenditure − increase in working capital.
Deduct acquisition and initial entry outlays when comparing cumulative project cash. Show downside, base and upside scenarios; the earlier illustrative figures remain assumptions until supported by quotations and customer commitments.
My recommendation: enter through ONE customer-backed cluster pilot. Use qualified existing supply capacity initially, then add assets when demonstrated demand and delivery economics justify them. Acquisition becomes attractive when its purchase price and integration costs outperform that route; greenfield requires sufficient contracted demand.
2027 execution
| Period | Decision and action |
|---|---|
| Q1 | Validate ONE cluster, obtain supply quotations and secure an anchor customer. |
| Q2 | Run the paid pilot with agreed safety, quality and reliability requirements. |
| Q3 | Verify unit economics and cash impact; correct the main constraint. |
| Q4 | Expand within the cluster if the evidence supports it. |
A 90-day pilot can test operating assumptions; it cannot verify a 10-year return.
ONE next action: complete ONE cluster input sheet and replace assumptions with customer demand, supplier quotations and investment costs.
Simulate before investing. Prove before expanding.
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Industrial Gas Leadership 2030
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