🌍 GeoPolitics Strategic Dashboard

Weekly Comparison: May 22 → May 29, 2025

🇩🇪🇦🇹🇨🇭 DACH Strategic Dashboard

Weekly Comparison: May 22 → May 29, 2025

As of May 29, 2025, the Ukraine conflict has entered a pivotal phase, marked by Germany’s intensified support under Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the activation of the European-led “Coalition of the Willing.”

🇩🇪 Germany’s Strategic Shift Under Chancellor Merz

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has significantly reoriented Germany’s stance on the Ukraine conflict. In a landmark decision, Germany has pledged €5 billion in military aid to Ukraine, focusing on joint production of long-range missile systems capable of reaching targets within Russian territory. This move includes lifting previous restrictions on the use of German-supplied weapons against Russian targets, aligning Germany with allies like the UK and France .DIE WELT+12Der Guardian+12euronews+12Time+1El País+1

While the delivery of Taurus missiles remains a topic of debate within the German coalition government, Merz has emphasized immediate support through joint industrial projects, including the development of advanced drones and missile systems . This approach marks a departure from former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s more cautious policies, signaling a robust commitment to Ukraine’s defense and European security.Financial Times+1AP News+1

🤝 The “Coalition of the Willing”: A European Security Initiative

In response to shifting U.S. policies and the need for stronger European engagement, the “Coalition of the Willing” was formed in March 2025, led by the United Kingdom and France. This coalition comprises 31 countries committed to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and deterring further Russian aggression.
Key objectives include:
Wikipedia+1German Marshall Fund+1Ukrainian World Congress+1Wikipedia+1

1. Maintaining and increasing military aid to Ukraine.
2. Enhancing economic sanctions against Russia.
3. Establishing a peacekeeping force ready to deploy upon a comprehensive ceasefire agreement.
4. Providing security guarantees to ensure a lasting peace .
   The Washington Post+13Reuters+13El País+13El País+2Wikipedia+2Reuters+2

The coalition has held multiple high-level meetings, including a summit in Kyiv, to coordinate efforts and solidify commitments .Wikipedia

🧭 Strategic Outlook

Germany’s proactive measures under Chancellor Merz, coupled with the concerted efforts of the “Coalition of the Willing,” represent a significant shift in European defense policy.
These developments underscore a unified European front in supporting Ukraine and upholding regional stability. As diplomatic negotiations continue, the coalition’s readiness to provide military and economic support remains a critical factor in shaping the conflict’s trajectory.

Note: This summary is based on the latest available information as of May 29, 2025.

Sources

Critical Stakeholder Assessment of the New Situation

🧩 Critical Key Stakeholder Assessment

Ukraine Conflict | May 29, 2025
Focus: Germany under Merz & the “Coalition of the Willing”

🎯 Strategic Context

The Ukraine war has evolved from a regional defense to a global realignment trigger. Under Chancellor Merz, Germany has repositioned itself as a frontline enabler. The emerging Coalition of the Willing is shaping new blocs of power, influence, and risk.

♟️ Stakeholder Map: Influence vs. Intent

🧠 Insight Summary

• Germany’s new stance under Merz breaks a historical taboo: from pacifist tradition to assertive defense diplomacy.
• France and UK form the ideological and military spine of the “Coalition of the Willing.”
• U.S. retreat forces EU to coordinate harder and faster — a strategic test.
• Russia’s tactical pressure triggers long-term strategic isolation.
• China benefits from Western distraction, maintaining quiet geopolitical leverage.

🔮 Strategic Verdict