Geopolitics: Cui Bono? Israel Strikes on Iran, June 13,2025
Deep Insight into Israel’s yesterday’s 13 June 2025 attack on Iran
Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of Israel’s major military operation against Iran on June 13, 2025, often referred to as Operation Rising Lion:
🎯 Strategic Scope & Tactics
- Over 200 Israeli fighter jets conducted pre-dawn strikes targeting nuclear and military assets, including missile factories, air-defense systems, and command centers in multiple cities such as Tehran, Natanz, Khondab, Kermanshah, Hamadan, Bandar Abbas, and Tabriz reuters.com+15theaustralian.com.au+15economictimes.indiatimes.com+15.
- The campaign blended airstrikes, drone swarms, and covert sabotage, supported by clandestine operations from Mossad agents inside Iran to cripple air defenses and missile infrastructure economictimes.indiatimes.com.
🎯 Key Targets & Personnel Neutralized
- The Natanz uranium enrichment facility was heavily struck, along with heavy-water and research reactors at Khondab and Khorramabad youtube.com+15theaustralian.com.au+15isis-online.org+15.
- High-ranking officials killed include:
- IRGC Commander Hossein Salami
- Military Chief Mohammad Bagheri
- Deputy Commander Gholam Ali Rashid
- Nuclear scientists: Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, Abdulhamid (Minouchehr), and Fereydoon Abbasi, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization cbsnews.com+15theaustralian.com.au+15en.wikipedia.org+15.
- Civilian casualties occurred in Tehran when residential zones were hit axios.com+15theaustralian.com.au+15en.wikipedia.org+15.
⏱️ Context & Timing
- This strike follows over a decade of diplomatic turbulence—from the 2015 JCPOA deal, its unraveling under Trump, stalled talks under Biden, to repeated tit-for-tat attacks since 2023 axios.com.
- Israel waited until Iran’s regional influence (via Hezbollah and Syria) was weakened and secured tacit U.S. alignment, bolstered recently by Atlantic posture under President Trump newyorker.com.
🚀 Iran’s Response
- Iran launched less than 100 ballistic missiles in two salvos about 18 hours later, primarily intercepted by Israeli and U.S. systems; a few struck urban areas, causing civilian casualties and minor infrastructure damage reuters.com+3understandingwar.org+3reuters.com+3.
- Retaliatory drone strikes were attempted but failed to penetrate Israeli airspace wsj.com+15understandingwar.org+15youtube.com+15.
🌐 Wider Impacts
- The operation has severely degraded Iran’s nuclear and military leadership, constraining its ability to wage a full-scale retaliation time.com+2reuters.com+2nypost.com+2.
- Global markets reacted: oil surged over 10%, Dow Jones futures dropped, and gold and Swiss franc rose amid regional instability en.wikipedia.org+1en.wikipedia.org+1.
- The attack effectively halts U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations—a sixth round in Oman was suspended, and Iran tuy publicly suspended indirect talks en.wikipedia.org.
🔍 Takeaways & Outlook
| Dimension | Insight |
|---|---|
| Operational Goal | Decapitation of Iran’s nuclear/military leadership—similar in strategy to prior Israeli preemptive strikes in Iraq and Syria . |
| Short-Term Effect | Tactical blow to Iran’s infrastructure. May slow progress, but hardened sites remain intact—long-term impact uncertain . |
| Retaliation Potential | Iran’s immediate missile/drones blunted. Further escalation possible via proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis) . |
| Regional/Diplomatic Risk | Heavy risk of wider conflict. Global powers call for de-escalation even as Israel asserts existential self-defense. Nuclear talks all but on hold . |
| Political Leverage | Strengthens Netanyahu domestically; complicates US diplomatic posture and international consensus toward Iran . |
Cui Bono? and How?
Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of who might benefit (“cui bono”) from Israel’s June 13, 2025 strikes on Iran and the surrounding implications:
🎯 Strategic & Tactical Gains for Israel
- Delay to Iran’s nuclear progress: The strikes—dubbed Operation Rising Lion—targeted nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan, Arak) and elite military-nuclear figures. Israel sought to impede Iran’s progress toward potential weapons capability youtube.com+3theguardian.com+3chathamhouse.org+3theguardian.com+3thetimes.co.uk+3en.wikipedia.org+3.
- Removing senior Iranian leadership: The deaths of IRGC heads (Salami, Bagheri, Rashid, Hajizadeh) and nuclear scientists constitute a decapitation tactic, aimed at reducing Iran’s strategic and operational coordination washingtonpost.com+1en.wikipedia.org+1.
- Show of force to regional adversaries: The boldness of the strikes reinforces Israel’s deterrence posture—not only to Iran but also to proxy actors like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Chatham House notes that after Iran, Israel may shift to confronting Houthi forces timesofindia.indiatimes.com+5chathamhouse.org+5washingtonpost.com+5.
🏛️ Political and Domestic Leverage
- Netanyahu’s political consolidation: Under domestic pressures and coalition volatility, elaborating the “existential threat” narrative boosts Netanyahu’s support. The timing—when Iran was momentarily vulnerable—serves both strategic and political gains .
- Global narrative framing: By framing the operation as “preemptive self-defence” with U.S. intelligence tacit support (or at least forewarning), the Israeli government aims to legitimize its actions internationally .
💣 Iran and Its Proxies
- Potential hardliner empowerment: The strike attacks may consolidate hardline factions within Iran, who can argue that nuclear and missile development is essential as deterrence. Experts caution that it could accelerate rather than stymie Iran’s nuclear ambitions .
- Proxy escalation: Iran’s retaliatory missile/drones (over 100 launched; some hit Tel Aviv before interception) and likely Houthi responses suggest increased risk across the region washingtonpost.com+2cbsnews.com+2youtube.com+2.
🌍 Other International Actors
- Russia and China: They both condemned the strikes. Russia termed them “unprovoked and unacceptable,” expressing concern over regional destabilization thetimes.co.uk+2en.wikipedia.org+2economictimes.indiatimes.com+2. China also issued travel alerts.
- Global oil & financial markets: Oil spiked 7–11%, U.S. futures dropped, and airline stocks dipped—ultimately benefiting speculative investors hedging risk, and countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia via surging oil exports .
- Gulf states: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt face heightened pressure to defend themselves, potentially accelerating their own deterrent developments.
🧩 Summary Table: Who Gains & How
| Beneficiary | Action / Gain |
|---|---|
| Israel | Nuclear delay, leadership removal, deterrence messaging |
| Netanyahu | Political bolstering, framing as existential necessity |
| Hardline U.S. figures | Trump, GOP hawks, pro-Israel lobbies gain credibility |
| Iranian hardliners | Nuclear acceleration, political strengthening |
| Oil exporters/investors | Profit from volatility-induced price spikes |
Relevant News on June 13 2025
Aftermath of Israeli strikes in Tehran
Israel launches “Operation Rising Lion” targeting over 100 nuclear and military sites including Natanz and Fordow. The strikes reportedly killed IRGC chief Hossein Salami and senior nuclear scientists, aiming to delay Iran’s imminent nuclear weapons capability.
Three Scenarios moving forward
Here are the three most probable post-strike scenarios and their impact assessments:
🔮 SCENARIO 1: Controlled Retaliation & Diplomatic Pause
Description:
- Iran continues symbolic retaliatory strikes via missiles/drones or regional proxies (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis).
- No direct war declared; both sides signal restraint to avoid regional war.
- JCPOA talks frozen; Gulf states on alert but not engaged.
Impact:
| Dimension | Impact |
|---|---|
| Regional Security | High tension; elevated IDF alert; skirmishes at northern borders (Lebanon/Syria). |
| Global Markets | Oil stabilizes at higher baseline ($90–110), gold remains elevated. |
| Geopolitical | U.S. mediates backchannel talks; Russia/China condemn Israel but avoid direct action. |
| Duration | 2–6 months of volatility before normalization attempt. |
Likelihood: ★★★★☆ (Most Probable)
🔥 SCENARIO 2: Widening Proxy War
Description:
- Iran leverages Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Houthis for sustained asymmetric war.
- Israel strikes Lebanon, Syria; U.S. bases face indirect attacks.
- Suez/Strait of Hormuz disruptions increase.
Impact:
| Dimension | Impact |
|---|---|
| Regional Security | Multi-front war risk for Israel; risk of escalation with Lebanon/Syria. |
| Global Markets | Oil spikes above $120; shipping insurance surges; energy inflation returns. |
| Geopolitical | U.S. and EU back Israel; Russia/Iran coordinate diplomatically and logistically. |
| Duration | 6–12 months of proxy escalation and attritional conflict. |
Likelihood: ★★★☆☆ (Moderately Likely)
💣 SCENARIO 3: Direct Iran-Israel War
Description:
- Iran launches sustained missile attacks from its territory.
- Israel activates full mobilization; direct strikes on Iranian cities and infrastructure.
- Gulf nations drawn into conflict zones.
Impact:
| Dimension | Impact |
|---|---|
| Regional Security | Extreme escalation; mass civilian displacement in Iran and Israel. |
| Global Markets | Oil >$150, global recession risk, markets plunge. |
| Geopolitical | UN emergency action; global military alignments shift; potential NATO/China standoff posturing. |
| Duration | Open-ended; multi-year consequences. |
Likelihood: ★★☆☆☆ (Low, unless further red lines crossed)
🧠 Strategic Implications
- Israel’s Strategic Aim Achieved: Nuclear progress delay, regional dominance reaffirmed—but enduring peace unlikely.
- Iran’s Calculus: Likely to prioritize long-term asymmetric responses while avoiding direct war.
- U.S. Dilemma: Maintaining support for Israel while preventing regional war; domestic political impact looms.
