Based on the GEL Formula and Global Economy Health Indicator (GEHI) provided in the document, here’s a quarterly economic outlook assessment for the next four quarters (Q2 2025 – Q1 2026):
🌐 Global Economic Outlook: Q2 2025 – Q1 2026
Current GEHI Score: 6 – Medium Shape
Reflects moderate but stable global economic health with cautious optimism.
🔍 Quarterly Breakdown
📅 Q2 2025:
- Shifting Investments (SI): Rotation from U.S. tech to European and Asian equities continues, led by fiscal stimulus.
- Trade Tensions (TT): Easing slightly with trade expansions in South Asia (India, Vietnam).
- Energy Market Dynamics (EMD): OPEC anticipates rising demand, especially from aviation and automotive sectors.
- Macroeconomic Conditions (MC): OECD projects GDP growth of ~3.3% with inflation softening.
- GEHI Score Estimate: 6
Moderate growth, favorable investment shifts, and easing inflation.
📅 Q3 2025:
- SI: Continued global equity expansion outside U.S., especially in AI and energy sectors.
- TT: Potential friction with U.S. election-related policy uncertainty.
- EMD: Oil demand strong but subject to geopolitical risks (e.g., Middle East tension).
- MC: Resilient labor markets, steady consumer demand.
- GEHI Score Estimate: 6.5
Stronger energy and trade signals may slightly improve global sentiment.
📅 Q4 2025:
- SI: Investors become cautious amid U.S. election cycle and possible interest rate policy shifts.
- TT: Rising uncertainty could stall trade negotiations temporarily.
- EMD: Renewable investments may slow as attention shifts to short-term energy security.
- MC: Inflation risk could re-emerge due to energy price volatility.
- GEHI Score Estimate: 6
Steady but cautious climate due to political and market risks.
📅 Q1 2026:
- SI: Rebalancing of portfolios post-election, looking for clarity in fiscal and trade policies.
- TT: Depending on U.S. leadership, trade alignment or divergence could shift.
- EMD: Balanced oil and renewables market outlook expected.
- MC: Global monetary policy expected to stabilize inflation and support growth.
- GEHI Score Estimate: 6–6.5
Potential for a more optimistic start if policy clarity improves and inflation eases further.
🔮 Medium-Term Outlook (2026–2027):
- Forecast GEHI Range:6.5 to 7 (Upper Medium Shape)
- Driven by tech-led growth in Asia/Europe, steady energy transition, and cooling trade tensions.
